Looking at elector maps starting in the '60s is pretty interesting. Even though LBJ beat Goldwater by a landslide in '64, the map is almost inverted. The Southern Strategy is clearly having an impact even though it only started in '63. In '68, Wallace took some of the same states that the Republicans had only just picked up in '64 using the Southern Strategy, but Nixon, who'd been VP to the hugely popular Eisenhower, still managed to clean up.
Obama ran on "change you can believe in". He also promised "if you like your plan, you can keep it." In 2014, private market individual coverage increased by 6.2 million, but employer-provided group coverage *decreased* by 3.8 million. So in fact more people *didn't* get to keep their plan than the net gain in coverage due to ObamaCare's exchange. Overall, ObamaCare ended up being a mixed bag, and overall health care costs went up, particularly for those who didn't qualify for a subsidy.
Meanwhile, in November 2016 we were still in Iraq and Afghanistan. The unemployment rate had finally returned to where it was before the 2008 financial crisis (during which the Obama administration bailed out a bunch of very rich corporations who then failed to keep their end of the bargain). But a lot of people were working fewer hours than they wanted, making less money than they had been, or working in a job they didn't like. They were being told everything was great, but they could see that it wasn't.
What my uncle, who'd have voted for Bernie had he been available but ended up voting for Trump because he wasn't, told me was "I just wanted change." He'd been promised change by Obama and didn't get it.
17 million more people voted in 2020 than in 2016. Biden won the popular vote by less than a third of that: 5 million. Because of the electoral college, only around 80,000 votes would have needed to be changed (in the right states, of course) for Trump to have won instead. That's only slightly more than the margin by which Trump beat Clinton in 2016.
While I believed what I wanted to believe at the time, that 2020 was a repudiation of Trump and Trumpism, it seems clear to me now that it really wasn't. Biden won the election largely because of expanded voting access due to COVID-19. Since then Republicans have closed a lot of those "loopholes" in the states where it matters the most.
Fivethirtyeight.com rates the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up, with as much of a chance that the Republicans will take control as that the Democrats will retain it. The House is a different story: 538 gives the Republicans an 85% chance of taking back control. There is almost no chance that the Republicans will get enough votes to override a veto in either chamber, or that either party will have enough seats to stop a filibuster in the Senate (you need 60).
USpol, reproductive healthcare, contraception
For the folks who said that they weren't coming for Plan B or contraception:
If you assume cases are limited to gay men, and subsequently only test gay men, you'll only detect cases amongst gay men.
You don't need a doctorate in epidemiology to figure out that's terrible science and policy.
There's no way the WHO has never heard of confirmation bias. Or is not aware of the horrible homophobic history of the AIDS epidemic and the likely consequences of blaming gay people for this epidemic.
This can't just be incompetence. It has to be malice.
health. weight loss, keto, graphic
I've also had diarrhea since I started. This is very unfun.
I already know about my body that it struggles with salad, and leafy greens generally. I also can't eat mushrooms (IKR?) and broth also gives me tummy issues.
I have to be so incredibly careful on keto.
On the other hand, the lack of constant hunger, the increased mental clarity, increased energy, and "easy weight loss" are really too good to pass up.
health. weight loss, keto
Now for the bad news.
My body and leg cramps are back. Last night they woke me up, something that used to happen a lot, and was extremely painful.
I'm looking into the cause. I suspect that my mineral loss during water weight loss is a contributor, as are my general low mineral intake numbers, despite supplements.
I need a *lot* more magnesium and potassium, especially potassium.
I'm upping my supplements and am buying some nuts. I can't eat spinach :(
health. weight loss, keto
The good news is that in under a week, I'm in ketosis. If the rapid water weight loss wasn't a clear indicator, I found an old glucose and beta hydroxybutyrate meters and tested my blood for the first time in a long time.
94 and .5 - 3 hours post meal. That's ketosis. That's the good news.
In addition to the weight loss, I've had better mental clarity and less fatigue during the day.
How the heck am I supposed to leave bed...
@feoh also it’s running on a computer next to my bed, and everything is proxied thru a cheap VPS … actually been a goal of mine for a couple years and I just finally managed to get it done!!
I walk past Ascii, making a heart with my hands and showing it to her.
She blinks at me slowly, indicating a greeting and expression of trust, but otherwise does not reciprocate my action.
For a moment I feel rejected.
Then I remember she is a cat, and has neither the dexterity to return my sign of affection, nor does she have the symbolic understanding of what I did.
Hey awesome #accessibility folks...
Is there a guideline on colors? Specifically colors and contrast- colors that make things easy to read, or hard to read?
There were other reasons too. Based on the past I am very concerned about how some of the volunteers are trained and how they will execute their tasks.
I thought of physically attending HOPE, not as a volunteer but as an attendee, but I between the emotional toll that this took, and the risk of COVID and Monkeypox, I'm sitting this one out.
Nonetheless I'm glad folks are having fun and I hope the event goes off smoothly and safely.
After the incident in 2018, I hoped things would change. I hoped if I played the "long game", worked within the system and leaned on my reputation, that I could effect change.
I was wrong. I couldn't.
Maybe someone else can, but I couldn't.
I also couldn't be responsible in case something happened. I already felt responsible after 2018, even after I spent hours building a new team, preparing documents and policy for leadership. None of it seemed to matter in the end.
Some #HOPE thoughts.
Am not at HOPE this year, for the first time since my first HOPE in 2008.
I quit the Incident Response Team, renamed from the Code of Conduct Team, after leading it since 2012, and being a volunteer on it since it's inception 2010.
The reason I quit is that HOPE has no policy on banning people who violate the code of conduct. No policy at all, and nor does it have any sort of enforcement mechanism.
Blog post: Episode 37 Production report, part 2.
What does anti-trans hate speech have to do with antisemitism? Quite a lot.
I think https://the-federation.info/ is broken, unless we only have <1000 users active in the last 6 months.
~1000 users, but ~11,500 nodes
Geek, Hacker, Free Software and Free Culture advocate, Jew
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